Selling in 2019? Market Forecast.

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At some point or another, in the last year or so, you’ve mentioned selling your home. As you may have heard, the market is shifting. What does this mean? Well if you and I have talked, I’ve told you it’s been a Seller’s Market. Inventory has been so low buyers didn’t have much to choose from so they’d bid on anything that became available, hungry for property in Portland. While the market still favors Sellers, albeit more mildly than in 2016, 2017, and 2018, things are shifting toward Buyers. With inventory at it’s second-highest point in the last 3 years, pressure is being put on prices. While I may have been ok with trying that “high price point you wanted to” in 2016 or 2017, I would caution you against it now. Homes that sit on the market become stale. For Buyers, home-buying is extremely emotional; there’s a friendly chaos to it all. “Oh babe, this new house came available today! It’s so cute! Let’s go look at it!” You have the biggest opportunity to get multiple offers or the one best offer when you first to go to market. Once your home has sat there for a week or two or three, it becomes stale. It’s lost its shininess. No one says “Oh my gosh, this home has been on the market a month, it looks so great! Let’s go make an awesome offer!” In reality they say, “Hmmmm, this home has been on the market a month. I wonder what’s wrong with it? Let’s get more information from our agent and make them a lowball offer.” 

So at the very least, you want to work with an agent that watches the market; not just when they’re listing it, but on an ongoing basis and adjusts your price accordingly. You don’t want to get left behind. You want to maintain leverage. And so, in an effort to let you know I watch the market daily, I’d like to inform you of the year ahead. 

The New York Times reported this this morning:
 
“A lesson from history is that the market leads the economy by a lot longer than investors realize,” Mr. Stack said. If the economy is headed toward recession, as the latest stock market declines suggest it may be, “we won’t see the first economic warning signs until the first three to five months” of 2019. Among the leading indicators he’s watching for signs of weakness are consumer confidence, housing starts and unemployment claims.
 
On Thursday, the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index, a leading indicator of industrial activity, fell sharply. That suggests that “serious cracks” are starting to appear in the economy, Mr. Stack said… He’s also worried about the shaky housing market, with price drops and slowing sales showing up in major cities.
 
As the economist Paul Samuelson famously said, “The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions.”
 
Business Insider article says
“the market is behaving as it did during the worst collapse for the market since 1929 and/or the worst recession since the Great Depression. We have had declines like this, or worse, without there being a recession like in 1987…but the Fed eased aggressively, and we were in year five of the recovery with plenty of slack, not year ten with a closed output gap and now the Fed remains bent on still tightening.”
 
I underline “not year ten” because I want to draw attention to, in fact, that we are overdue for a recession. And just like the stock market and consumer confidence, everything ebbs & flows. There are cycles to everything in life. We are in year 10 of an upward trend in real estate. Typically, things that go up must come down. I don’t want to scare you, and I’m not telling you I know what’s going to happen, but I am telling you what’s happening and being said right now. And if it were me, I’d rather get in on the front end than wait & see and be making a decision at the bottom of the curve. Maybe you’re interpreting things differently, and that’s ok. 
 
As always, I’m happy to chat any time. 

Erin Middleton
Keller Williams Realty Portland Central
Phone/Text: 503.396.1933
Email: erinmiddleton@kw.com

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